NBA Playoff Power Rankings

Between the playoff matchups that are locked in, and the play-in teams looking to make their way in, 20 teams remain in the NBA landscape for the 2022-2023 season. Of the top 20 teams in the XSM Power Rankings, 19 of them are still alive in the NBA playoff race.

Team (Playoff Position, Z-Score, Previous Ranking)

1. Boston Celtics (2nd in East, .808, 1): The Celtics have arguably been the strongest team all season, led mainly by their offensive prowess. They finished the season with the 2nd best ORTG, 6th best 3P%, and 2nd best DRTG. The Celtics dodged a real bullet with Miami losing last night, as they would prefer any other matchup than Coach Spoelstra. In turn, the Cs are undoubtably a favorite to lift the trophy in mid-June.

2. Philadelphia 76ers (3rd in East, .706, 3): The 76ers closed the season on a fantastic note with their highest ranking yet to finish the regular season slate. They'll be facing the Brooklyn Nets starting on Saturday afternoon in their first round matchup. The 76ers finished the season tied for 3rd in ORTG, 1st in 3P% and 8th in DRTG. Unfortunately for them, if they get through Brooklyn, Boston probably waits for them on the other side in what will be a series for the ages that takes place far too early in these playoffs.

3. Sacramento Kings (3rd in West, .691, 2): The Sacramento Kings finished the NBA season with the best offense in the entire league; an incredible feat for Mike Brown and the rest of the Kings leadership. They finished top 10 in 3P% as well thanks in large part to Kevin Huerter and Keegan Murray. However...in what should be the best series in the first round, they will meet the Warriors beginning on Saturday night. They are currently a +225 underdog to win the series despite having homeport advantage. Get your popcorn ready.

4. Denver Nuggets (1st in West, .547, 4): The Nuggets had a comfortable hold on the first seed in the West despite a relatively mediocre finish to the season. They are projected to face the Timberwolves depending on how the play-in tournament shakes out. Despite being the top seed in the West, they had a below .500 record on the road. It will definitely be something to keep an eye on as the playoffs progress.

5. Milwaukee Bucks (1st in East, .479, 6): Disrespected by the rankings all year, this is the highest the Bucks have been. A team that does not want to get into scoring contests, the Bucks have been dominant on the defensive side, finishing with the 3rd best defense in the league. Part of their rise to #5 was their three-point shooting as of late, as they have now cracked the top 10. No matter who they get in the first round, I would be surprised if that resulted in anything but a sweep.

6. Cleveland Cavaliers (4th in East, .410, 5): The Cavs were a roller coaster this season that settled into the 4th spot in the East when all was said and done. The Cavs are a "muck it up" type of team, playing with the second slowest pace and having the best defense in the NBA. They also do a really good job taking care of the basketball, ranking 3rd in turnover differential. They'll get the Knicks in the first round, and it's important that they get home court advantage, going 31-10 at Rocket Mortgage Fieldhouse.

7. Golden State Warriors (6th in West, .398, 9): Oh boy. The Warriors have been shooting the lights out in the past couple of games, and come into the playoffs ready to roll. They have the 2nd best 3P%, and an above average ORTG and DRTG as we close out the regular season. The real story with them has been their inability to win on the road. A 33-8 home record versus an 11-30 road record is one of the craziest statistical comparisons we will ever see. They'll have to steal one this round, as they would play four in Sacramento and three in San Francisco if that series goes the full seven.

8. Memphis Grizzlies (2nd in West, .395, 7): The Grizzlies are eerily similar to the Bucks when it comes to all of their statistics throughout the season. The only real difference is they are even better defensively, but are very much below average in shooting three-pointers. They also do a really good job on the glass, but Steven Adams will be a huge missing piece for the playoffs. They very well may be tested by the Lakers.

9. New York Knicks (5th in East, .339, 8): It may not be the prettiest series to watch, but the Cavs-Knicks matchup will be a really tight one. The Knicks actually finished T3 (with the 76ers) when it comes to ORTG, but will be facing the best defense in the league in round 1. The Knicks also finished the season with the second-best rebound differential at +4.5, and the Cavs are rather average in that department. The best chances in all of the first round matchups to go the distance.

10. Phoenix Suns (4th in West, .259, 11): Rounding out the top half of the 20 teams are the Phoenix Suns. One of the surprising developments of the season has been the Suns reliance on the defensive end, even after the addition of Kevin Durant. They are a defense first type of team, ranking 7th in DRTG and 14th in ORTG. They will get the Clippers in Round 1, who will be without Paul George for at least the beginning of these playoffs.

11. New Orleans Pelicans (9th in West, .179, 15): A big discrepancy with the Pels checking in before many other teams that are fully locked in. They will face the Thunder to start the play in tournament and could face Denver if they do make that jump into the playoffs. Despite a below average offense, the Pelicans have the 6th best DRTG and a top 10 rebounding team in the NBA.

12. Oklahoma City Thunder (10th in West, .136, 10): One of the feel good stories of the NBA this season is the young OKC roster making the play-in tournament. They'll face the team above, and if they win, will face the loser of Lakers/Wolves for a chance to play Denver. The Thunder don't do anything particularly well, but they do have the second best average turnover differential, not giving the ball away and leading opponents to easy baskets.

13. Los Angeles Lakers (7th in West, .134, 18): Say all you want about the Lakers, they deserve a trip into the playoffs. They took down the Timberwolves last night, and now get a date with the Grizzlies. The Lakers' free throw attempts number is insane. They are a +5.8 FTA differential in their games this season, with the next team in line being the Kings at +2.1.

14. Atlanta Hawks (8th in East, .120, 17): A rather blah season results in a playoff berth after the semi-shocking beatdown of the Miami Heat last night. The Hawks are an above average offense that somehow shoots the three poorly; a rather puzzling season in Atlanta.

15. Los Angeles Clippers (5th in West, .0783, 19): The XSM model has doubted the Clippers all season, and will continue to do so. Their 3P% has truly kept them in a ton of matchups, and will rely on that 38.1% clip to keep them in their series against Phoenix. Without Paul George, it seems like a tough task. However, them and Sacramento are the only teams in the West to be above .500 on the road.

16. Toronto Raptors (9th in East, .0782, 13): A perfect 41-41 season for the Raptors but a team that seems to be playing better as of late? They have better home records than the Knicks and Nets, both squarely ahead of them in the standings. Shockingly, they are the 3rd worst 3P% team in the league behind the Rockets and Hornets. They'll have to beat Chicago, and then the loser of Miami/Atlanta.

17. Brooklyn Nets (6th in East, .071, 14): I can't say I know exactly what the Nets are doing at the moment, but they are still shooting the three at a great clip. However, they are getting smoked on the glass, and getting a matchup against Joel Embiid and the 76ers (who they were 0-4 against this season) doesn't seem to be a good one.

18. Chicago Bulls (10th in East, .0007, 16): 40-42 teams getting a chance to make the playoffs...gotta love the NBA. They are the most average team in the league with a z-score close to a perfect 0. A team that prides itself on the defensive end will get a matchup with the Raptors. Slam the under in that game.

19. Minnesota Timberwolves (8th in West, -.091, 22): They stay afloat with the three-point shot, and pass the ball a lot. That is about all this team does well. Like I've mentioned in previous articles, NBA purgatory exists, and the T-Wolves are directly in it. They'll have to defeat the winner of New Orleans/OKC to get a date with the Nuggets.

20. Miami Heat (7th in East, -.257, 26): They actually rank 24, but if we're just taking all of the teams left, they fall 20th out of 20. Miami is a team with a below average offense, the slowest pace and do not shoot the three at a high level. They lost to the Hawks last night, and will now face the winner of Toronto/Chicago. The Bucks sit on the other side of that.